Crypto prediction markets
Built for cross-chain information exchange and trading, where users take positions on outcomes of real world events. Open metrics of Polkamarkets V1 protocol running on Moonriver. Full-scale security audits of Polkamarkets' protocol. Polkamarkets is partnering with the top projects in the industry. Stay up to date with our latests announcements. This was highly anticipated by everyone at Polkamarkets Labs as part of our continuous work to bring cross-chain and multichain functionalities to the protocol.
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- Prediction market
- Autonomous Prediction Market Protocol
- Who Would Have Predicted It? Polymarket Settles for Operating Unregistered Swap Execution Facility
- Decentralized Prediction Markets
- Cryptocurrency 2022: 3 predictions make it a big year for Bitcoin, NFTs, and more
- Cryptocurrency predictions 2021: will the growth continue?
Prediction markets have been around for some time, but putting them on the blockchain has made them far more reliable and accurate. In fact, some researchers have found they are even more accurate than advanced statistical tools because of the reliance on knowledge and beliefs from a large number of users distributed evenly throughout the world.
The shift of prediction markets to the blockchain is one that was predictable itself. The decentralized blockchain fits predictive markets and tools perfectly. So perfectly that there are a number of projects exploring blockchain based predictive markets.
In this post I will take a look at 7 of the top crypto prediction markets and how they could potentially disrupt the betting industry. Augur REP is one of the first decentralized, trustless blockchain prediction markets. It combines smart contracts and oracles to allow for the prediction of real-world events without any third-party involved. The Augur market model makes use of a four stage progression:.
With Augur any future event can be used as a predictive model, including elections, weather events, company or stock forecasts, geopolitical events, the possibilities are endless.
The Augur mainnet only went live in the middle of Augur was actually one of the very first projects to complete an ICO on the Ethereum blockchain.
This means that at current prices the token is considerably above their ICO price and has been a good investment for early backers. Gnosis GNO is another of the older prediction markets, having been in development since The Gnosis team works under the premise that while information is readily available, not all information is true, and in most cases it also lacks objectivity and context. Information inherently is bias and can even be intentionally misleading. Gnosis plans on combating these tendencies in the following way:.
Gnosis has a number of uses, and with increased user participation it becomes more effective. Gnosis is built on the Ethereum blockchain and currently has an alpha version called Gnosis Olympia available where users can test the platform using play OLY tokens. GNO tokens are currently trading at a large discount to their ICO price so this could make them slightly more attractive from an investment perspective.
Like Gnosis, Stox runs on the Ethereum blockchain. Created by a group of financial market veterans, Stox is a prediction market platform that allows trading in the results of any real-world event that can be imagined. Weather, politics, sports, celebrities and financial markets are just a few of the possibilities. By using a decentralized, trustless platform Stox hopes to capture the attention of traders by providing them with a safe place to trade on real-world events without the intervention of governments or third party companies and firms.
Much like Augur, it will allow its participants to profit from their knowledge in any field. Stox was developed by a group of industry experts. It was founded by CEO and founder of Invest. It has also been backed by an advisory board of 9 members and has partnerships with the likes of Sirin labs, Blockchain capital and Cointree.
This endorsement led to a flood of interest in the Stox ICO. However, it proved to eventually be controversial in as the SEC closed in on paid promotions on social media.
Stox is trading at a considerable discount to the ICO price and was one of the biggest victims of the bear market. It is currently trading on exchanges such as HitBTC. Delphy is one of the newer blockchain prediction markets allowing its users to profit from their predictions regarding real-world events.
Delphy caters to a global market, but is most focused on the Chinese market, and is one of the few prediction market services available there. It also bills itself as a social platform that allows traders to come together and create their own markets. Delphy is built on the Ethereum blockchain and much like other prediction markets it allows users to profit from their predictions on a wide range of real-world events.
Most of the trading volume on Delphy is currently taking place on CoinMex however there are also sizable markets on Gate. Instead it focuses on sports and gaming as well as politics. It also covers the massively popular area of sports betting.
BlitzPredict is still in development and makes use of three tools:. One novel use for BlitzPredict will be for analytics. Currently each sportsbook uses its own analysis tools, and this leads to many different predictions for the same event. This leads to a fragmented outlook on the outcome of future events and creates inefficiencies in the markets. BlitzPredict will do away with this inefficiency by incentivizing experts to share their information rather than keeping it proprietary.
Outside users can gain access to the experts knowledge by spending XBP tokens. Experts will be rewarded for correct predictions, thus putting the best forecasters at the top while slowly ridding the platform of inferior predictors. Hivemind , or Bitcoin Hivemind as it is known to some, was born from Truthcoin and it is an open-source peer-to-peer prediction market based on the use of oracles. It is unique among the prediction markets on this list as it is designed as a sidechain of Bitcoin.
And rather than being focused on financial markets or sports betting, Hivemind is focused on governance issues.
It believes governance problems can be easily addressed through a multi-factor decision making process which uses conditional prediction markets. The highly ambitious project seeks to reduce issues in multi-factor decision making, and has already provided valuable insights into the capabilities of predictive markets in the realm of governance. In Hivemind the events must be resolved by voters and the decisions being voted on are either Boolean or scalar.
Voters come to agreement on the decisions using the Hivemind VoteCoins. Also similar to Augur, voters are punished financially for inaccurate reporting, but rewarded for accurate results. Bodhi is also unique because it is built on the Qtum platform , and it is the first functional decentralized application on Qtum.
Bodhi has both a testnet and a mainnet and both are functional. The team is also now working on launching a version on the Ethereum blockchain. Like other prediction markets, users can create markets on any real-world event.
This is possible because of the decentralized nature of Bodhi. Everything on the platform, from creating markets to staking against event outcomes to participating in the dispute process, is powered by the native BOT token. Prediction markets are already proving their usefulness to the extent that companies such as Microsoft are taking advantage of the capabilities offered by blockchain based predictive markets.
And some are calling them a better forecasting tool than any statistical model or computer based simulation. By relying on the wisdom of the crowd financial traders can do away with technical indicators, charts and trading signals.
Human wisdom will tell them all they need to know about future market moves. Experts claim that by utilizing the knowledge and experience of a large sample group informed decisions and accurate forecasts can be made. This seems to be borne out by the fact that some large organizations are already using these prediction markets for their own internal decision making and governance.
Resource Hub Videos About Contact. Augur 2 2. Gnosis 3 3. Stox 4 4. Delphy 5 5. BlitzPredict 6 6. Hivemind 7 7. Bodhi 8 Conclusion. Some of the live events on Augur. Image via predictions. Image via Gnosis. Upcoming events on Blitzpredict and the top markets.
Image via BlitzPredict. Author Steve Walters. Steve has been writing for the financial markets for the past 7 years and during that time has developed a growing passion for cryptocurrencies. Share on Social Media. Latest Posts. January 28, 14 min read.
Blockchain Gaming Levels Up January 27, 15 min read. Related Posts. Execs Looking to Sell Assets January 26, 2 min read.
Autonomous Prediction Market Protocol
Although Bitcoin is the number one cryptocurrency, there are currently over 10,plus cryptocurrencies in use. Several digital currencies have outperformed returns on Bitcoin. This article will cover cryptocurrency predictions for and analyse current market sentiments, investor participation, and other key factors driving the cryptocurrency market. Gemini, a cryptocurrency exchange, has unveiled a cryptocurrency rewards credit card in collaboration with Mastercard and WebBank. The Gemini Credit Card will be available in the Summer of
Who Would Have Predicted It? Polymarket Settles for Operating Unregistered Swap Execution Facility
A trend that has been predicted by numerous industry observers is crypto decoupling, i. Discerning investors increasingly look at the actual usage and underlying microeconomics of various networks and trade around their unique growth drivers. Arcane Research has predicted more bitcoin mining bans in , particularly from countries with weak grids or low energy production capacity, meaning more mining will be pushed to countries with robust grids and plentiful energy supply. One of the upsides is that producing bitcoin will likely become less of an environmental drain as countries with cleaner grids take up the slack. Downsides could include a less well-distributed mining network. Regulatory attention on cryptos generally and stablecoins in particular has been ramping up in and is likely to be a year of action on that front. Stablecoins, such as Tether and USD Coin, maintain a one-to-one value with fiat currencies, such as the dollar, and are backed by low-risk assets in those currencies. At least, that is what investors had assumed. El Salvador became the first country in the world in to recognize bitcoin as legal tender.
Decentralized Prediction Markets
Producer, director, actor and politician Kamal Haasan is set to become the first Indian celebrity to have his own digital avatar in a metaverse. Choose your reason below and click on the Report button. This will alert our moderators to take action. Nifty 17, Policy Bazaar
Cryptocurrency 2022: 3 predictions make it a big year for Bitcoin, NFTs, and more
All things considered, bitcoin has had a pretty good year. It's a year that's seen the first major crypto company go public with the debut of Coinbase in April, increased participation from Wall Street banks like Goldman Sachs , and the approval of the first U. However, heightened regulatory scrutiny and intense price fluctuations have dampened bitcoin's prospects lately. And experts warn the market could be heading toward a downturn. With next year already looking like another roller-coaster period for digital currencies, CNBC takes a look at analysts' biggest predictions.
Cryptocurrency predictions 2021: will the growth continue?
Prediction markets have been around in some way or another for centuries. They are exchange-traded markets created for the purpose of trading the outcome of events. The market prices can indicate what the crowd thinks the probability of the event is. Considered more accurate than employing pools of experts, its main advantage is the number of voters, as it relies on the wisdom of the crowd. And now the crowd can use the blockchain technology to show its wisdom and make money on it. This is where the Augur project comes in. The project boasts Vitalik Buterin , co-founder of the Ethereum platform, as advisor, and is led by Jack Peterson and Joey Krug, creators of a Bitcoin fork called Sidecoin. The first public alpha was released in June , followed by the beta version in March and their mainnet launch this July.
Prediction markets have been around for some time, but putting them on the blockchain has made them far more reliable and accurate. In fact, some researchers have found they are even more accurate than advanced statistical tools because of the reliance on knowledge and beliefs from a large number of users distributed evenly throughout the world. The shift of prediction markets to the blockchain is one that was predictable itself.
By Karim Halabi. Prediction markets are not a new concept by any means. However, like many pre-existing paradigms and constructs, it has the potential to be and is being disrupted by decentralized networks and cryptocurrencies. This has implications for their operation, as well as forms of governance. A prediction market is a form of gambling, and the outcomes gambled upon are real-world events, or the likelihood of an event occurring. The reason why they have drawn so much interest is that they tend to be pretty accurate.
Over the past few weeks, the Bitcoin price has been fluctuating quite a bit, more so on the lower side. So why has Bitcoin and the whole of crypto markets behaving so irrationally as of late? In this article we'll take a look at why is Bitcoin going down and Bitcoin price prediction for June Making crypto price predictions can be difficult, especially Bitcoin price prediction, as Bitcoin's chart movements essentially influence the whole crypto market. However, many crypto experts have given price predictions for Bitcoin. Christopher Brown of Faith Finance predicts that Bitcoin could potentially get back to its all-time high price in June if the market is favourable. However, this is all speculation, and Bitcoin price predictions should be taken with a grain of salt.
Now, The data is suggesting a massive dive into lower supports after a proper GALA has been one of the hottest cryptos of late However, this metaverse fueled move has caused GALA to make a huge bubble-pattern. I'm sure that you have seen the picture on the left before, so I won't go over it too much.