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China has been a major contributor to global growth, and its economic activity tends to have significant repercussions for the global economy. To understand where the Chinese economy is in its growth cycle, we highlight several key charts below, which may also provide context for the impact of the coronavirus. China remains an important economic bellwether for countries that have started to reopen following the COVID epidemic.

Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 31 December Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Chart is for illustrative purposes only. Is there a reason for concern? The numbers also support the industrial reflation narrative a big jump in the input price PMIs to And if growth headwinds were to intensify, China still has policy tools at its disposal to prop up domestic demand.

As regards the first point, we should be hearing more in the coming weeks—the investigation of Alibaba Group can be an interesting test case. On the second point, headlines about SOE defaults pushed corporate spreads noticeably higher—especially for local SOEs. We believe allowing companies to default is not negative per se, as it helps price discovery, improves transparency, and reduces moral hazard.

However, financial stability considerations are also important—even though the actual number of defaults was not that high—so this can be a delicate balancing act for regulators.

Source: Wind, UBS. Data as of 21 December Spreads are measured relative to average yield of 1, 3, 5, and 10 year bonds issued by the China Development Bank. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, and a reading below 50 indicates contraction. We believe PMIs are a better indicator of the health of the Chinese economy than the gross domestic product GDP number, which is politicized and is a composite in any case.

The manufacturing and non-manufacturing, or service, PMIs have been separated in order to understand the different sectors of the economy. These days, we believe the manufacturing PMI is the number to watch for cyclicality.

The information is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice. The views and opinions expressed are those of the author s but not necessarily those of VanEck. Opinions are current as of the publication date and are subject to change with market conditions. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward looking statements, which do not reflect actual results.

Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. All indices mentioned are measures of common market sectors and performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. All performance information is historical and is no guarantee of future results. Investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck.

Jan van Eck, CEO. Important Disclosure For informational and advertising purposes only. Authored by. VanEck uses cookies to ensure that your web experience is tailored to your needs and interests and to analyze our website traffic. To learn more, please read our privacy policy.



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China has been a major contributor to global growth, and its economic activity tends to have significant repercussions for the global economy. To understand where the Chinese economy is in its growth cycle, we highlight several key charts below, which may also provide context for the impact of the coronavirus. China remains an important economic bellwether for countries that have started to reopen following the COVID epidemic. Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 31 December Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Chart is for illustrative purposes only.


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When markets retreated in March, global real estate equities were among the worst hit. But while global stock markets have rebounded, real estate equities continue to languish in the calendar year to date. Notably, those in the retail and hospitality sectors were among the key laggards, weighed down by perceptions that landlords struggling to collect rents from tenants will have to cut or suspend dividends. The reality, however, is more upbeat than six months ago.

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