Sean trende 2012 election
As GOP House members continue their Kamikaze mission to scuttle the immigration reform bill, many political observers are wondering why. Karl Rove thinks so. The most influential empirical analysis supporting this view was recently published by Sean Trende in a four part series on RealClearPolitics. What he means by this is that, given the estimated number of white voters in derived from exit polls and the natural increase in white eligible voters between and there should have been far more white voters than there actually were again, estimated from the exit polls.
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- Hey Super PACs, No Amount Of Campaign Spending Will Move The Polls
- Pete Spiliakos
- How redrawn districts could impact control of the House in 2023
- 07/26 Elections 2012 with Harry Caines: Real Clear Politics’ Sean Trende
- Four County GOP Congressional Seats Targeted in 2018
- GOP searches for its missing white voters
- The problem with polls
Hey Super PACs, No Amount Of Campaign Spending Will Move The Polls
Remember how Republican leaders vowed to improve their outreach to minorities after Mitt Romney's demographic disaster in November?
Well, not so fast, amigos. A lot of folks in the Grand Old Party's conservative wing prefer to tap another group that let them down: the "missing white voters. They're the focus of a widely discussed four-part post-election series by Sean Trende, senior elections analyst at RealClearPolitics, revisiting a theme he raised last November in an article titled "The Case of the Missing White Voters.
Even with present population projections, there are likely to be a lot of non-Hispanic whites in this country for a very long time. Comprehensive immigration reform was named in a post-election "autopsy" by Republican National Committee leaders as essential to patching up frayed relations with Hispanic voters, in particular.
But legislation has since run up against a major pushback by House Republicans after passing the Democratic-controlled Senate. No sweat, says Trende. Using available exit poll and census data, Trende estimates the actual turnout of blacks, Hispanics, Asians and other non-whites was about 2 million less than in , but that was less of a decline than the 6 million drop-off in the white vote.
That backs up a position advanced by conservatives Phyllis Schlafly and Pat Buchanan and the nonpartisan Center for Immigration Studies. Maybe, they argue, the GOP should focus on white voters who comprised 72 percent of the electorate in instead of worrying so much about Latinos. But unless the party wants to confine itself to local, state and regional power, it needs to reach out to all constituencies, argue GOP establishment figures like consultant Karl Rove. Romney, who won 59 percent of white voters, would have needed I don't often agree with Rove, but I think he's right this time.
As the "autopsy" report found in polls and focus groups, the GOP has lost touch with a lot of voters across racial and ideological lines, leading to their fifth presidential election out of the last six in which the GOP failed to win a majority of the popular vote.
What happened to the missing white voters? Democrats asked that same question after , their fifth loss of the previous six. They responded by reconnecting with working class white "Reagan Democrats" and reoriented their message back to the political center to solve problems, not just present policy arguments. Those days come to mind in Trende's county-by-county analysis of turnout in the key swing state of Ohio: Romney's worst turnout rates occurred in economically hard-hit rural areas like southeastern Ohio.
It is not unreasonable to see a connection between the "missing white voters" of and recent polls that shows a widening optimism gap between the races. The new analysis by the Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research at the University of Chicago finds only 46 percent of white Americans say their family has a good chance of improving their living standard, compared to 71 percent of blacks and 73 percent of Hispanics.
Trende's candid language drew some predictable criticism, but he was not calling for the GOP to ignore minority voters.
He mainly argues that the fate of the parties will not turn on a single issue like immigration. On that point, he's right. There's no need for the parties to argue over which Americans deserve their attention most.
We all do. Email Clarence Page at cpage tribune.
Pete Spiliakos
CNN Let me tell you a little story. Nine years ago, Barack Obama won a second term in office, and there was talk of an emerging Democratic majority in presidential elections. Then came Donald Trump, the least liked major party nominee of all time, who won the election — albeit without winning the popular vote. More Videos The Senate map looks very good for Democrats. Pence rebukes Trump: 'I had no right to overturn election'.
How redrawn districts could impact control of the House in 2023
These elections, so the narrative goes, bring about sharp, enduring changes to the American political system, forcing one party into the background and allowing another party to come to the forefront. This trove of data dates back to , and covers all manner of races: Senate, House, gubernatorial, and presidential. This allows us to build some expectations for what The Senate elections are not shaping up to be particularly favorable for the Democrats. While there are still scenarios where they could walk away breaking even, or even gaining a seat or two, those scenarios are pretty far-fetched. Current predictions vary somewhat, but seem to center around Republicans picking By attacking GOP candidates while they are still embroiled in a primary The thesis is pretty straightforward: Because of demographic changes, the GOP is on a path toward irrelevance unless it can remake itself and appeal to the rising
07/26 Elections 2012 with Harry Caines: Real Clear Politics’ Sean Trende
Remember how Republican leaders vowed to improve their outreach to minorities after Mitt Romney's demographic disaster in November? Well, not so fast, amigos. A lot of folks in the Grand Old Party's conservative wing prefer to tap another group that let them down: the "missing white voters. They're the focus of a widely discussed four-part post-election series by Sean Trende, senior elections analyst at RealClearPolitics, revisiting a theme he raised last November in an article titled "The Case of the Missing White Voters. Even with present population projections, there are likely to be a lot of non-Hispanic whites in this country for a very long time.
Four County GOP Congressional Seats Targeted in 2018
Skip to main content 6 results. A Return to Normalcy? Sabato , Kyle Kondik , et al. Mar 17, Get it as soon as Thu, Feb
GOP searches for its missing white voters
Political prognostication has become increasingly unreliable. Here's everything you need to know:. Are polls really less accurate? There's no doubt about it. In recent years, polls have been egregiously wrong in several high-profile elections.
The problem with polls
President Obama has put together a coalition that's not only been a winner for him, but promises to pay dividends to his party for years to come. A mix of minorities, young people and educated white professionals has now driven him to two majority-vote presidential victories — the first Democrat to pull that off since Franklin D. As has been widely noted this week, Obama managed to recapture broad support from groups largely responsible for his election: African-Americans, Hispanics, Asians, single women, and young and highly educated whites.
By Salena Zito The political parties have a problem with white middle-class voters. Both major parties failed to connect with them in last month's presidential election. The political parties have a problem with white middle-class voters. Many pundits have pointed to high turnout among minorities and young people as the key to Obama's victory.
Donald Trump, seemingly poking his finger in the eye of this establishment, pursued the opposite course, attracting more support from white voters without college degrees whose ranks were shrinking but becoming more Republican. Demographic trends remain tough for Republicans, and a new study released Monday by a coalition of think tanks confirms this. The GOP would benefit from boosting support among new immigrant groups and doubling down on the white working class. But going forward, the Trump strategy of increasing support among non college whites over expanding its vote share among immigrant groups has advantages in both the popular vote and the electoral college, and will likely be at least a part of future GOP election game plans. The States of Change report is the first in this series to analyze forward-looking demographic changes, factoring in the election results, and the first to break down trends among college and non-college white voters. If party support and turnout rates among all voting groups remain unchanged from , the shift in demographics would lead the Democrats to victory in , with Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin going back to the blue column. Future elections would trend even more Democratic.
Senate races and concludes that the GOP is being underestimated. The RCP aggregate poll now has President Barack Obama with an approval rating of 43 percent and disapproval at 52 percent. But over the course of the summer, his job approval numbers slid into the mids.
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